How odds work

Each card in a case is placed in a tier by comparing its fair market value (FMV) to the case price. The multiple is fmv / price. The default tiers are:

A case can define its own tier boundaries. When it does, the boundaries in effect are shown on the case page and in the table below.

A case with N cards left has exactly N slots left, and each purchase takes exactly one of them. The chance that your pull is any specific remaining card is:

odds(card) = 1 / remaining_slots

The chance of pulling a tier is the number of remaining cards in that tier divided by the remaining slots. Odds move as the case sells because each pull removes one card from the box. They never move for any other reason: we do not add cards to a live case, and we do not remove them.

odds(tier) = cards_remaining_in_tier / remaining_slots

When you buy, the odds table shown to you at that moment is saved on the order as oddsSnapshot. You can see it on the order page forever. If a card is repriced later, your snapshot does not change.

Which slot you receive is decided by a commit-reveal scheme that neither we nor you can steer after the case is published. Read how fairness works or verify a case yourself.

• EV (expected value) is the plain average FMV of the cards still in the case: sum(fmv of remaining) / remaining. It is not a promise. Half of the remaining cards can be worth less than the EV.
• Floor is the lowest FMV of any remaining card. Every case also has a published minimum floor that no card can be below when the case is built.
• Ceiling is the highest FMV of any remaining card.