How odds work

Most chests are always available. We keep them stocked with real product and publish odds by value range, for example $25 to $50: 20%. Each rip first rolls a value range by those odds, then picks one item in that range at random from the product in the chest at that moment.

• The odds are the same for every buyer and do not depend on your history, your spending or anything else about you.
• If a range has no product in it at a given moment, it is skipped. On a chest with fixed odds the other ranges scale up in proportion. On a chest with auto odds the odds are solved again from the product that is in stock, as described below. The chest page always shows the live odds.
• Every chest page lists every product you can pull from it, plus recent pulls. Some chests also show how many of each are in stock. Chests are restocked over time, including with product other buyers sold back.
• Most chests use auto odds. As product is pulled and restocked, the higher ranges keep their proportions to each other and are scaled up or down together, and the lowest stocked range takes the rest, so the average pull aims at the chest's target share of the price. If the stock in the chest cannot reach the target exactly, the odds get as close as they can, and the lowest range always keeps at least 1%. A chest never sells when its average pull would be above the price: it pauses to restock instead. The average pull is shown on every chest page before you buy.
• Some chests let you pick an odds mode: Normal, High, Max or 50/50. Every mode has the same price and aims at the same average pull. High moves odds toward the upper ranges; Max is either a Standard pull or one from the top of the chest (5x the price and up); 50/50 is even odds between the cheapest items and items worth about twice the average pull. The higher the upside, the more Standard pulls pay for it. Each mode shows its own odds before you buy, and the mode you picked is saved on your pull.
• The odds used for your rip are the live odds at the moment your payment clears. Store credit clears instantly; card checkout clears when the card payment completes. Those exact odds are saved on your pull with the roll that picked it, and your order also keeps the odds you were shown at checkout. See fairness.

Each item in a chest is placed in a tier by comparing its fair market value (FMV) to the chest price. The multiple is fmv / price. The default tiers are:

A chest can define its own tier boundaries. When it does, the boundaries in effect are shown on the chest page and in the table below.

A chest with N items left has exactly N slots left, and each purchase takes exactly one of them. The chance that your pull is any specific remaining item is:

odds(item) = 1 / remaining_slots

The chance of pulling a tier is the number of remaining items in that tier divided by the remaining slots. Odds move as the chest sells because each pull removes one item from the chest. We do not add items to a live limited chest. Which tier an item sits in follows its FMV, so a repriced item can move between tiers; the table below is always the current one. If we close a limited chest early, its unsold items return to our stock and its seed is published so every pull can be checked.

odds(tier) = items_remaining_in_tier / remaining_slots

When you check out, the odds table shown to you is saved on the order as oddsSnapshot. When payment clears, the odds actually used to pick your product are saved on the pull itself, next to the roll. Neither record changes later, even if an item is repriced.

Which slot you receive is decided by a commit-reveal scheme that neither we nor you can steer after the chest is published. Read how fairness works or verify a chest yourself.

• EV (expected value) is the plain average FMV of the items still in the chest: sum(fmv of remaining) / remaining. It is not a promise. Most pulls can be worth less than the EV.
• Floor is the lowest FMV of any remaining item. A chest can also set a minimum value that no item can be below when it is added; where it does, that minimum is shown with the chest.
• Ceiling is the highest FMV of any remaining item.

No chests are live at the moment. Check back soon.